Carolina21 wrote: Also, I get a different number. To clear 5.80 with a 4.83m grip, it is a 1.17m push, I think you calc'd for a 6m (1.37m)? No big deal. 1.17 is the top of spectrum, but has been done before, 1.37 as you mention is near impossible, or rather at that point you should be gripping higher.
Right you are.
I started out my post comparing him to 6.00 club members, thus the 1.37 pushoff.
However, I came back down to earth when I realized that before he soars into that stratosphere, he needs to break the 19' barrier. But in my haste at lowering the target PR, I forgot to subtract 0.20 from the pushoff he would need.
I think I agree with everything you pointed out, including the possibility that he COULD clear 19' with his current grip. I say that because his numbers are within the expected range - although they can only be relied upon when comparing traditional vaulters (Petrov or drive vaulters). A 1.17 pushoff is only near the top end of the numbers for a 6.00 vaulter - but would be VERY good for a 5.80 vaulter!
I still don't have good data for the 5.60-5.80 range, but according to DJ's Mid Chart, the "normal" grip for someone in that range is 4.90-5.00 (a 36" to 40" pushoff). Colwick already has a 39" pushoff. Jumping 5.80 with that grip would be a phenomenal 46" pushoff.
It would be one helluva vault, but it's not impossible ... for him!
It would be great if Jason gets onto bigger poles for the outdoor season, and pops a big one. But I'm not going to judge him in terms of what he can or cannot do in the next few weeks ... or even months. To be fair, I think he'll prove himself as the Real McCoy if he can clear 5.80 in the next few YEARS. If you look at some (most?) of the other 19'+ vaulters, they broke that barrier YEARS after they graduated from college! (Yeh, I know ... Walker and Skipper excepted.)
Kirk